What will 2024 be like for the aluminium market?
According to a recent report by Goldman Sachs, one of the world’s leading investment banks, the aluminium market is poised for a promising year.
After a balanced 2023, 2024 could in fact see a positive trend reversal.
Although an immediate change in dynamics is not likely, analysts Nicholas Snowdon, Aditi Rai and Lavinia Forcellese expect a persistent tightening trend due to a combination of policy-supported Chinese demand and stabilising demand in developed countries against increasing supply constraints.
This scenario is expected to support a growth in the performance of the metals sector, with a target of +18% over 12 months. In particular, growth is expected in aluminium prices, with a target of $2,600 per tonne over 12 months.
“For the pre-painted aluminium market, the beginning of 2024 has proven to be a positive period,” confirms Matteo Trombetta Cappellani, President and CEO of Metalcoat, Alusteel Coating, Alpine Anodizing and Aleu “Prices are stable and trending upwards.”
Also according to Goldman Sachs, the global economic situation, including China’s domestic demand and industrial policy, will be decisive for the aluminium market in 2024. Fluctuations in exchange rates and trade tensions could significantly influence aluminium prices and demand.
“In Italy there is still a feeling of uncertainty, due precisely to the international situation. The blockage of the Suez Canal, for example, is slowing down the supply of raw materials from Asia, with a consequent difficulty in finding bare support,” Trombetta Cappellani continues, “But despite this, the sector is reporting a positive momentum, which is expected to last throughout the year”.
In conclusion, 2024 looks set to be a year of growth for the aluminium market, with a number of factors supporting a positive trend reversal.
